We are midway through October and the pressure is on. Most businesses by now have a very good idea about how their Q4 and total year of 2024 is going to end up from a revenue perspective so all that is left is to manage the costs and profit.
Unlike revenues which are driven (mostly) by customers, expenses are typically all controlled internally and can be much more easily managed and manipulated. This is one of the biggest reasons you will see cost-cutting of budgets and people over the next 10 weeks.
As we head into these last few weeks of the year, it’s important to drive revenues, manage expenses, and deliver on promised profit targets. In addition, it is important to keep a close look on the things Wall Street is focused on so you can adapt and evolve to meet expectations.
Based on research and conversations with our executive-level clients, here are the 3 big things Wall Street is looking for in Q4 2024:
The Next Move of the Federal Reserve
All eyes are on the Fed. Don’t be surprised if there is a lot of talk about a big rate cut immediately after the election on November 6, 2024, when the Fed has its next meeting. Between now and then, voters, business leaders, and investors are paying close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy shifts and the direction they are going to be telegraphing.
At the last meeting in September 2024, the Fed initiated its first rate cut in four years, and markets are now expecting further reductions by the end of the year. The months after the election are going to be critical for the rest of 2024 and then into 2025 as the Fed balances inflation control with economic growth which will have significant implications for market sentiment as rate cuts typically benefit equities but can introduce volatility if recession fears grow which the most likely will. Add that to the disappointment of 49.9% of the US population who saw their candidate lose and you have the perfect storm for chaos on Wall Street in December and into Q1 2025.
The Explosion of AI Opportunities and the Performance of Key Sectors
Wall Street is closely monitoring the performance of sectors that typically benefit from rate cuts, such as healthcare, consumer staples, and high tech that uses computing technologies.
In terms of these computing technologies, AI-driven growth continues to be a significant focus, with analysts expecting that companies leveraging artificial intelligence may outperform over the coming months.
The shift in leadership towards value and small-cap stocks from large-cap tech earlier in the year also indicates a broadening rally, presenting opportunities beyond traditional tech sectors that will drive a new “gold rush” toward the “next next” generation of AI-driven solutions. Companies failing to get on the AI bandwagon are going to have a hard time surviving.
Market Volatility and Economic Performance
Volatility is expected to remain a theme, driven by geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US elections, and economic data. Although the economy has shown resilience with improved GDP growth, inflation remains a significant concern. Investors are also weighing the possibility of a "soft landing" scenario where inflation eases without causing a recession, which has become the baseline expectation for the quarter.
In summary, it is going to be a rough next 10 weeks. The 3 elements I mentioned in this blog, monetary policy changes, economic resilience amid volatility, and sectoral shifts are shaping investment strategies and market outlooks as Wall Street navigates the end of 2024 and puts pressure on companies to perform at expected levels.