Treats, Tariffs, and Trade-Offs: The Business of Halloween Candy

Halloween used to be simple. A few pumpkins on the porch. A string of orange lights. Maybe a couple of wicked witches at the end of the driveway to scare visitors.

Now? People are spending hundreds of dollars on 12-foot skeletons, fog machines, synchronized light shows, and animatronic zombies that could give Disney Imagineers a run for their money.

I saw a TikTok the other day where someone asked, “Where do people store all this stuff the other 364 days of the year?” Great question.

But beneath the jokes lies something interesting: Halloween has become a big production. And when expectations rise, costs follow, especially for the one thing every trick-or-treater actually cares about: the chocolate!

The Frightening Math Behind the Treats

Here’s the scary part. According to FinanceBuzz, a 100-piece bag of Halloween candy now runs about $16.39 in 2025. Five years ago, it was $9.19. That’s a 78% jump.

Inflation in general is up about 25% over that same period, so candy is outpacing just about everything but college tuition and concert tickets. In other words, if you’re handing out full-size candy bars this year, congratulations, you’re now a luxury brand.

(Source: FinanceBuzz 2025 Candy Inflation Study)

Why Candy Prices are so Scary (and Expensive)

There’s no simple answer to why candy costs more; it’s a witches’ brew of ingredients and other factors all bubbling together at once.

• Cocoa costs have gone through the roof. Bad weather in West Africa, smaller harvests, and higher global demand have sent cocoa prices up fourfold since 2023.
• Sugar’s up too, thanks to weather issues in Brazil and India.
• Packaging and shipping have gotten pricier thanks to fuel costs and supply chain snags.
• Labor costs have climbed across the board, from the plant to the warehouse to the truck.
• And consumers? They still expect to buy candy, so companies are juggling price increases, smaller packs, or new mixes to hold onto margin.

The sweet spot for profit? It’s getting smaller than a mini Reese’s.

Tariffs: The Phantom Tollbooth of the Supply Chain

And just when the witches’ cauldron of trouble starts to cool down, someone throws in one more ingredient: tariffs.

Because the U.S. imports nearly all of its cocoa, chocolate companies are getting hit with import duties that can run anywhere from 10% to 30%, depending on the source country.

For a company like Hershey, that’s an extra $15–20 million in costs per quarter, with the potential to hit $100 million if trade policies stay sticky.

It’s a one-two punch: cocoa prices skyrocket, tariffs pile on top, and suddenly the economics of a Snickers bar look more like a graduate-level finance problem.

No wonder some brands are rethinking sourcing, reformulating products, or expanding non-chocolate options (gummy bears never looked so good right now).

What It Means for Business (and Trick-or-Treaters)

For candy makers, this is a masterclass in margin management. If your cost of goods goes up 40% and you can’t pass it all to consumers, you’re watching your profit melt like a chocolate pumpkin on a warm porch.

Retailers face their own set of trade-offs: Raise prices and risk slower sales? Hold the line and watch margins disappear? Shrink the bag and hope no one notices?

Consumers are feeling it, too. More people are trading down, fewer chocolates, more gummies. Non-chocolate candy now averages $5.77 per pound, versus $8.02 for chocolate. And that’s not just a fun fact; it’s a real shift in product mix and consumer behavior.

A Sweet Case Study in Business Acumen

Halloween candy is a bite-sized example of how innovative business acumen works. Every function has a role:

• Procurement: Can you find new suppliers or negotiate tariff relief?
• R&D: Can you reformulate without killing quality?
• Marketing: How do you protect your brand when the price jumps 20%?
• Finance: How do these moves show up on your income statement and cash flow?
• Sales: How do you explain all this to retailers trying to keep promotions profitable?

This is exactly the kind of scenario we build into our business simulations, where a single variable like “tariffs” or “COGS increase” forces participants to think across silos and make trade-offs that balance financial health with long-term brand strategy.

No Tricks, Just Takeaways

It’s easy to laugh (or cry) about $16 candy bags and 12-foot skeletons, but they tell a deeper story. Prices are sticky, expectations are sky-high, and everyone, from procurement to marketing, is working harder to stand still.

Halloween candy might be seasonal, but the business acumen lesson isn’t: cost transparency matters, loyalty has limits, and every decision has ripple effects.

So when you hand out candy this year, remember, you’re not just fueling a sugar rush. You’re living a real-time case study in pricing, cost management, and human behavior. Because in business, as in Halloween, the scariest monsters are always the ones you don’t see coming.